What you need to know: Drafting WRs
Don't laugh. The next Charles Rogers could be headed to your team.
Congratulations, you’ve made it to one of maybe 3 other sports sites that wont be talking about Jay Cutler today. Enjoy.
Today I’m beginning a segment called “What you need to know.” In each segment, I’ll be breaking down draft trends by each position using every draft since 2000. I went through each of the drafts and sorted it out by how many of each position was drafted throughout the entire period to begin with. Once I sorted that out, I went back through each draft and subjectively labelled which of these first round picks turned out as busts.
Now labelling a bust is, like a said, a heavily subjective argument. So for the sake of consistency and a little better understanding I’ll define the term more clearly:
A bust is when a player fails to produce at the level of which is expected of an average to above average starter at said player’s position. As a first round draft pick, you are typically drafted with the intention of starting early and making a productive impact on the field. That, or you are groomed with the promise of becoming an above average player in the NFL.
Simply put, if there’s no early production then the guy’s a bust. Early is a matter of 1-3 years in my terms, which is meant to account for time needed to acclimate to the more difficult positions in the game. One other condition I’ve used on the whole boom/bust theory (which kept a lot of players off the bust list) is this: If a team receives 2 years of solid–if not excellent–production from a player, that player is not considered a bust.
Today we will be focusing on the wide receiver position.
What you need to know.
Round 1 WRs: 50% of the time they work out everytime
Since 2000, there have been 36 wide receivers drafted in the first round (only two other positions have been drafted more in the first round–defensive backs, 38, and defensive ends, 37). Of those, 18 have been labelled busts. Take a look.
2000: Travis Taylor (BAL), Sylvester Morris (KC), R. Jay Soward (JAX)
2001: David Terrell (CHI), Freddie Mitchell (PHI)
2002: Ashley Lelie (DEN), Donte Stallworth (NO)
2003: Charles Rogers (DET)
2004: Reggie Williams (JAX), Michael Clayton (TB), Rashaun Woods (SF)
2005: Troy Williamson (MIN), Mike Williams (DET), Matt Jones (JAX), Mark Clayton (BAL)
2006: none, surprisingly. I guess 2005’s list of busts scared teams away.
***Anyone mentioned past this point is still under review. I give WRs 3 years to show me something and these guys haven’t had 3 years yet.***
2007: Ted Ginn Jr. (MIA), Robert Meachem (NO), Craig Davis (SD)
2008: Too early to tell
As you can see, the chances of landing a top notch WR in the first round are a coin flip. In 2003, Charles Rogers was chosen one spot ahead of Andre Johnson…who led the league in receiving yards last season.
The Best and the Worst
- The best wide receiver draft class since 2000 would have to go to the class of 2004, a class that includes Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, and Michael Jenkins.
- The worst class was 2005 (see above).
The Game’s Greats
ScoutsInc has a list of every wide receiver ranked from best to worst. Of the top 10 listed, only 4 were selected in the first round. The other six averaged a draft round position of 3.5, meaning that the greatest wide receivers in the game DO NOT come from the first round.
Summary
All of you fans out there freaking out about the Michael Crabtrees and the Percy Harvins in this year’s draft need to temper your expectations. I’ll admit, I have a hard time seeing a guy like Crabtree struggle in the NFL myself…but I also said the same thing about Dwayne Jarret and Mike Williams. Yeesh.
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Your list is pretty good; however, I think you should take roddy white off this list. He’s had two good years in a row. Don’t think he has been a bust. You mention Michael Jenkins as being in the better draft class of WR but his production hasn’t matched Roddy
White’s.
You’re absolutely right, thanks for catching that –Paul