Mock Draft Mayhem: Play Today!

Posted in 2009 Draft B.S. on April 22nd, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – Be the first to comment

We’re less than a week away from the long-awaited 2009 NFL Draft, which means that there’s less than a week to make your picks for Mock Draft Mayhem 2009.

What is Mock Draft Mayhem you ask?

It’s a March Madness-style selection selection game, for football. I’m throwing the entire first round at you and you make the picks. Sound complex and time-consuming? Not really. You’re not picking any specific player, just the position you think the team is going to take.

Scoring is based off of a numerical point system. Incorrect guesses wont hurt you, but the picks increase in value as you go deeper into the draft.

The winner will have their name posted on the Mock Draft Mayhem Champions page, and will also receive a guest post on the page to write about whatever they want (football related). Heck, if you live close to me…I might even buy you a beer (standard college student compensation).

For more on the rules, click here

To get started, submit your picks here

Good luck!

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On a side note, it’s good to be back on writing here. The past week or so has been brutal with tests and papers.

Fantasy BS: Wide Receivers to watch in 2009

Posted in Fantasy B.S. on April 9th, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – 1 Comment
wr-collage

Look for break-outs, resurgences, and just flat speed in 2009

We come now to the most position-dependent position in football. The wide receiver. Unlike other positions in football, a wide receiver overall fantasy value is dictated almost solely by the man under center. In other words: Quaterbacks make or break the receiver.

Take a look at Randy Moss. From 2000-2004–when Daunte Culpepper was throwing him the ball in Minnesota–Culpepper’s QB rating averaged a legitimate 92.8. During that same stretch, Moss averaged 1283.2 yards and 12.4 TDs per season. Now throw him in Oakland–during which time his quarterback carousel averaged an abysmal 66.1 QB rating–and one of the greatest receivers of all time is suddenly averaging 779 yards and 5.5 TDs each season. Same theme, flipped around. Take Tom Brady, who I’ve dubbed the “King Midas of wide receivers.” This guy can take a one-armed blind man and make him look like a pro-bowler. The year before the Pats went after Moss, Brady’s main targets were Reche Caldwell–a guy now buried deep in the Rams depth chart–and the ageless Troy Brown. Yet in spite of the garbage New England had lining up out wide, Brady still managed to throw for 3,529 yards and 24 TDs. Since then those receivers have done nothing. As for Brady and Moss… …they’ve been productive. With that in mind, let’s take a look at three wide receivers who have benefitted most from offseason moves to date.

1. Dwayne Bowe

Like a boss. (Reuters Pictures)

Like a boss. (Reuters Pictures)

Dwayne Bowe is one of the most stubbornly productive receivers in the game. For the past two years I’ve passed on drafting him, and for the past two years he has somehow ended up on my team at the end of the season. He’s just that consistent, which is a fantasy virtue in that position. I never expected any 20 point outbursts from him or anything, but you can almost be certain that every week the guy was going to earn you 7-10 points every Sunday. That’s incredibly impressive on his part considering how many QBs have been throwing to him in his 2 seasons as a pro. To be able to adjust to not only the professional level, but the varying play styles between different quarterbacks…that’s a handful. Luckily for Bowe, he wont have to worry about the QB adjustment part any longer. When the Chiefs made a move for Matt Cassel, Bowe’s fantasy value instantly sky-rocketed. Cassel’s no Peyton Manning–as the hype might have you believe–but he sure isn’t Damon Huard. In terms of talent, I’d group him with guys like Matt Schaub and Aaron Rodgers; productive, young quarterbacks who have a ton of potential. Cassel and Bowe will have an entire offseason to work with each other, which should pay off huge next season. Tight end Tony Gonzales will still command attention as usual, as will newcomer Bobby Engram. All of these ingredients spells out a potential for a break out season for Bowe. I’ll probably have him ranked as a top 10, if not top 5 fantasy wide receiver coming into next season. If you’re picking last, I would use this guy as an ace up the sleeve. Grab your running backs and quarterbacks, and then once people start making a big splash into the wide receiver pool, snap him up. He wont be one of the guys instantly taken so he should be there waiting for you after the dust settles. Either way, grab him relatively early.

2. Roy Williams

A lot of people in Dallas were disappointed when Roy Williams didn’t walk in the door and head straight to the pro-bowl. Let’s get one thing straight: this isn’t a pick up game. Tony Romo wasn’t sitting there finger tracing routes on the palm his hand. Jason Witten wasn’t poking his head up over the huddle yelling “BALL LOCK!” to the defense so they wouldn’t listen to the play. This is professional football. 

Master every single page in 3 weeks and then tell me how bad Roy Williams is (Ross Dettman espn.com).

Master every single page in 3 weeks and then tell me how bad Roy Williams is (Ross Dettman espn.com).

NFL teams rarely make noticeable trades midseason, partly because of how much time it will take the incoming player to digest the team’s playbook. This isn’t some double-sided sheet of paper that your JV coach/history teacher drew up in paint during his off period for you when you were in high school. We’re talking about 700+ page playbooks people. So yea, expect a bit of an adjustment period for Mr. Williams.   Williams is going to be solid next season. The Cowboys wouldn’t have booted T.O. out of Dallas if they didn’t think Roy was capable of replacing him. Like Bowe, Williams has an entire off season to work with his quarterback and master the playbook. He also gets to drop the middle initial, which should help boost his morale (sarcasm). 

I think Witten will still be Romo’s number one target, but Williams will come in a close and enormously productive second. Don’t let last season’s dissappearing act scare you. He should make for a good starting fantasy wide receiver next season so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger early.

3. Devin Hester

You could argue a number of other receivers for this last spot, but I personally see Hester being the off season’s largest beneficiary.  The Devin Hester wide receiver experiment is approaching year three, which means the excuses are out the door. The cornerback-turned-receiver has gotten his feet wet, and now it’s time to dive in and make an impact. Last year’s 665 receiving yard season was a step in the right direction, but it was still mediocre at best. When you consider how absolutely electric this guy is on the field, you can’ t help but think he can do better. (que Hester youtube break) Recently the Bears traded for pro-bowl QB Jay Cutler, who led the league in feelings hurt this past month (not sure if they record that stat yet). Emotional or no, the kid can sling the rock. Mark my words: Jay Cutler will find Devin Hester in open space next season. And if you didn’t notice from the clip above, open space is all that Hester needs. ^^Love it.

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Don’t forget to make your predictions for Mock Draft Mayhem! Play today!

Mock Draft Mayhem Begins Today

Posted in 2009 Draft B.S. on April 8th, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – Be the first to comment

So the NCAA tourneys are all over. You’ve got nothing to focus your inner sports nerd energy on, right?

Wrong.

Introducing Mock Draft Mayhem.

Playing is simple. Go to the Entry Submissions page and predict what position each pick of the 1st round of the NFL Draft will be spent on. Correct predictions will earn you points like this:

Picks 1-10: 1 point each
Picks 11-20: 3 points each
Picks 21-30: 5 points each
Picks 31 & 32: 10 points each

The winner will be determined based on the highest point total accumulated and will receive the following:

-Name placement and point total on the Mock Draft Mayhem Champions page to be remembered next to future tournament winners
- An optional guest post on Botchedsnap.com: You can talk about why you chose your winning picks or just write about your favorite team. Write whatever you want, or I’ll write it for you. It’s your call.

Show everyone the Draft Guru you really are. Fill out an entry form today!

For more detailed descriptions on the rules/point system click here.

To get started, click here.

What you need to know: Drafting WRs

Posted in 2009 Draft B.S. on April 6th, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – 1 Comment

 

Don't laugh. The next Charles Rogers could be headed to your team.

Don't laugh. The next Charles Rogers could be headed to your team.

Congratulations, you’ve made it to one of maybe 3 other sports sites that wont be talking about Jay Cutler today. Enjoy.

Today I’m beginning a segment called “What you need to know.” In each segment, I’ll be breaking down draft trends by each position using every draft since 2000. I went through each of the drafts and sorted it out by how many of each position was drafted throughout the entire period to begin with. Once I sorted that out, I went back through each draft and subjectively labelled which of these first round picks turned out as busts. 

Now labelling a bust is, like a said, a heavily subjective argument. So for the sake of consistency and a little better understanding I’ll define the term more clearly:

A bust is when a player fails to produce at the level of which is expected of an average to above average starter at said player’s position. As a first round draft pick, you are typically drafted with the intention of starting early and making a productive impact on the field. That, or you are groomed with the promise of becoming an above average player in the NFL. 

Simply put, if there’s no early production then the guy’s a bust. Early is a matter of 1-3 years in my terms, which is meant to account for time needed to acclimate to the more difficult positions in the game. One other condition I’ve used on the whole boom/bust theory (which kept a lot of players off the bust list) is this: If a team receives 2 years of solid–if not excellent–production from a player, that player is not considered a bust.

Today we will be focusing on the wide receiver position.  

What you need to know.

Round 1 WRs: 50% of the time they work out everytime

 Since 2000, there have been 36 wide receivers drafted in the first round (only two other positions have been drafted more in the first round–defensive backs, 38, and defensive ends, 37). Of those, 18 have been labelled busts. Take a look.

2000: Travis Taylor (BAL), Sylvester Morris (KC), R. Jay Soward (JAX)

2001: David Terrell (CHI), Freddie Mitchell (PHI)

2002: Ashley Lelie (DEN), Donte Stallworth (NO)

2003: Charles Rogers (DET)

2004: Reggie Williams (JAX), Michael Clayton (TB), Rashaun Woods (SF)

2005: Troy Williamson (MIN), Mike Williams (DET), Matt Jones (JAX), Mark Clayton (BAL)

2006:  none, surprisingly. I guess 2005’s list of busts scared teams away.

***Anyone mentioned past this point is still under review. I give WRs 3 years to show me something and these guys haven’t had 3 years yet.*** 

2007: Ted Ginn Jr. (MIA), Robert Meachem (NO), Craig Davis (SD)

2008: Too early to tell

As you can see, the chances of landing a top notch WR in the first round are a coin flip. In 2003, Charles Rogers was chosen one spot ahead of Andre Johnson…who led the league in receiving yards last season. 

The Best and the Worst

  • The best wide receiver draft class since 2000 would have to go to the class of 2004, a class that includes Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, and Michael Jenkins. 
  • The worst class was 2005 (see above).

The Game’s Greats

ScoutsInc has a list of every wide receiver ranked from best to worst. Of the top 10 listed, only 4 were selected in the first round. The other six averaged a draft round position of 3.5, meaning that the greatest wide receivers in the game DO NOT come from the first round.

Summary

All of you fans out there freaking out about the Michael Crabtrees and the Percy Harvins in this year’s draft need to temper your expectations. I’ll admit, I have a hard time seeing a guy like Crabtree struggle in the NFL myself…but I also said the same thing about Dwayne Jarret and Mike Williams. Yeesh.

BS Mock Draft Update: Thanks a lot, Cutler.

Posted in 2009 Draft B.S. on April 3rd, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – Be the first to comment
Incoming physical abuse, courtesy of Jason Smith

Incoming physical abuse, courtesy of Jason Smith

Jay Cutler put me back to work. All of those classes I spent not listening so I could put together my original draft suggestions are now all gone and out the window.

Not to worry. I’ve gone ahead and switched up a few picks based on recent news and other free agency happenings. I still maintain that Stafford would be best served going in the middle of the draft to a team that’s not in dire need of a QB. I also moved Orakpo up to KC’s pick since either Orakpo or Curry could help that defense out tremendously.

Chris Wells might be a bit of a stretch at 14, but I see that as a pick based on value rather than need at that point. If he can manage to stay healthy, this kid is going to turn some heads.

Other players that have moved up:

  • Everette Brown, DE (from 12 to 9)
  • Percy Harvin, WR (from 17 to 16)
  • Matt Stafford, QB (from 18 to 17)
  • Josh Freeman, QB (from n/a to 20)

Here’s the updated projections. I encourage everyone to leave comments if they’re a bit iffy on a pick. I’d be happy to explain it. 

Pick No. Team Needs Suggested Player
1 DET QB, OL, DL OT, Jason Smith
2 STL OT, MLB, WR OT, Eugene Monroe
3 KC CB, DL, OL DE, Brian Orakpo
4 SEA OT, CB, LB LB, Aaron Curry
5 CLE DE, LB, CB WR, Michael Crabtree
6 CIN WR, OL, DL OT, Andre Smith
7 OAK WR, DL, OL DT, B.J. Raji
8 JAX WR, DT, CB CB, Malcom Jenkins *
9 GB OT, DE, DT DE, Everret Brown
10 SF QB, WR, FS WR, Jeremy Maclin*
11 BUF OL,LB, DE DE, Aaron Maybin
12 DEN DE, LB, QB DE, Tyson Jackson
13 WASH DE, RT, OLB OT, Michael Oher
14 NO FS, LB, DT HB, Chris Wells
15 HOU LB, DT, RB LB, Clay Matthews
16 SD OL, SS, LB WR, Percy Harvin *
17 NYJ QB, WR, DE QB, Matt Safford
18 DEN (from CHI) DE, LB, QB LB, Rey Maualuga
19 TB QB, DT, DE QB, Mark Sanchez
20 DET (from DAL) QB, OL, DL QB, Josh Freeman
21 PHI WR, LT, TE HB, Knowshon Moreno
22 MIN QB, OL, WR LB, Brian Cushing
23 NE RB, OLB, OT LB James Laurinaitis
24 ATL OLB, S, OT TE, Brandon Pettigrew
25 MIA WR, CB, OLB CB, Vontae Davis
26 BAL WR, CB, LB WR, Darius Heyward-Bey
27 IND DT, OLB, WR DT, Peria Jerry
28 PHI (from CAR) WR, LT, TE TE, Jared Cook
29 NYG WR, LB, TE, S WR, Hakeem Nicks
30 TEN WR, QB, CB CB, Alphonso Smith
31 ARI RB, OLB, LT, TE HB, LeSean McCoy
32 PIT OT, DE, CB, WR OT, Eben Britton

*denotes that a team might trade down

Fantasy BS: RB stocks improving for 2009

Posted in Fantasy B.S. on March 26th, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – 1 Comment
Less Plaxico Burress means more Brandon Jacobs. Yes I have a man-crush. (Barton Silverman/The New York Times)

Less Plaxico Burress means more Brandon Jacobs. Yes I have a man-crush. (Barton Silverman/The New York Times)

As a follow-up to a previous post I wrote, here’s a look the running back picture heading into next season

As I said in the other post, the key variable to a running back’s fantasy worth is the offensive line. Knowing where the top offensive lineman move in free agency is important in determining what running backs might increase their fantasy value.

Another variable to keep an eye on is the fullbacks. Guys like Leonard Weaver, Vonta Leach, Mike Sellers, Madison Hedgecock…those guys pave roads for running backs. If a team snags a steam roller at fullback, the rushing yards will increase.

Let’s take a look at 3 running backs whose fantasy values have benefited the most so far this offseason:

1. Brandon Jacobs

One of my favorite players in the NFL to watch just caught a boost to his fantasy value. Let’s look at the facts: 

  1. Plax is still AWOL: A weaker passing game leads to more carries. Jacobs is the type of back who can tell the defense he’s getting the ball and still gain five yards, so even if the opposing team focuses on the run…it wont matter.
  2. Derrick Ward left: The starter behind the bigger starter headed south to Tampa Bay. Behind Ward is Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw’s a capable back, but there’s a reason he wasn’t number two last year. Expect more carries for Jacobs until the Giants are confident in Bradshaw as the number two man.

Jacobs was absolutely solid as a fantasy back last season. As long as he can remain healthy all season, look for bigger and better things from the Giants’ sledgehammer.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew

Pocket Hercules will be the main man for the Jags in '09 (Getty Images).)

Pocket Hercules will be the main man for the Jags in '09 (Getty Images).)

MJD has been one of those enigmas as a fantasy running back. One day he’ll net you 25 and the next he’ll net you 4. Such is the infuriating trend that befalls platoon running backs. Well not anymore. With Fred Taylor off to New England, MJD is left in the driver’s seat. The Jags plan to continue dividing the workload between two backs, but I get the feeling that Taylor’s successor, Greg Jones, is going to need some time to adjust to the new workload. Of course during that time it’s not as if Jacksonville will rely on its passing game to pick up the slack. Whoever plays the Jags next season is going to get a heavy dose of Pocket Hercules…and their new anchor at tackle, Tra Thomas, will make sure of it.

3. Derrick Ward

Ward will have plenty of opportunities to drag scrubs around in Tampa (Lai/AP).

Ward will have plenty of opportunities to drag scrubs around in Tampa (Lai/AP).

Derrick Ward finally gets a chance next season to play out from under Brandon Jacobs’ massive shadow, and that leads to a huge increase in his fantasy value. The QB situation with the Bucs isn’t exactly ship-shape, and that always means good things for that team’s running game. Now unless you’re from Tampa or you just happen to follow them closely, a lot of people might’ve forgotten about another running back they’ve got in Cadillac Williams. Don’t count that guy out, because he was producing good numbers when he returned late last season. Williams will undoubtedly hinder Ward’s overall potential fantasy value, but the numbers he puts up next year will still be much more improved than they were during his time in New York.

17 Cases Against Drafting Matt Stafford

Posted in 2009 Draft B.S. on March 23rd, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – 2 Comments

 

Word of advice to Detroit: Pass.

Word of advice to Detroit: Pass.

If Matt Stafford is worth being drafted #1 overall, so is Alex Smith.

It’s not that the guy is bad. It’s just that there are so many better options in this draft. That’s why if you take a look at my B.S. draft suggestions, you’ll see that I think he should realistically fall to the 18th spot in the draft. Yes he has an NFL-caliber arm and has the potential to be a great QB. Problem is, he’s too inconsistent. A good QB can take an OK college team and carry them into the top 25 polls. Stafford started the season ranked #1 overall. It was his to lose, and he lost it.

I’m not sold on the guy. He’ll have a productive NFL career, but he’s not this year’s Matt Ryan. I have a feeling that if the Lions don’t take him #1 overall…Stafford’s going to be in for one heck of a slide come draft day. Need some justification? Fair enough. Here’s 17 cases against drafting Matt Stafford.

Case 1: Detroit Lions

Remember when Houston drafted a QB #1 overall? It was ugly. The lions aren’t in any better of a situation in terms of offensive line talent, and Stafford’s already inconsistent. You can expect those INTs to increase if he spends the entire game running for his life. Detroit needs to take the safe, boring pick and grab one of those monster tackles to start revamping their joke of an offense.

Case 2: St. Louis Rams

The Rams need to replace the juggernaut that was Orlando Pace, and all signs point to them finding that replacement through this year’s draft. While Bulger might not be half as good as he once was, he’s still better than any rookie QB you’d have to plug in instead.

Case 3: Kansas City

Two words: Matt. Cassel.

Case 4: Seattle

Two more words: Matt. Hasselbeck.

Case 5: Cleveland

The Browns tied their own hands behind their back last offseason when they resigned Derek Anderson to a $40 million dollar contract. Throw in the fact that new coach Eric Mangini has proven that he doesn’t emphasize the QB position very much at all when he stuck with Pennington and Clemens in his tenure with the Jets. You also need to consider the fact that Brady Quinn hasn’t been given much of a chance to prove his value on the field either. Don’t expect them to tie up anymore money on another gamble at QB.

Case 6: Cincinnati

Carson. Palmer.

Case 7: Oakland

Considering how much money they have tied up in their own 1st overall picked QB, they shouldn’t be looking at Stafford at all.

Case 8: Jacksonville

David Garrard’s spot is safe. Last season’s blunders were the result of a decimated offensive line. 

Case 9: Green Bay

I think they’re sticking with Aaron Rodgers.

Case 10: San Francisco

San Fran seems like a logical destination for the Georgia Bulldog, but I don’t think new coach Mike Singletary’s priority is at QB while he attempts to turn the 49ers into a smashmouth-style team. His Bears were pretty good, and their QB was pretty mediocre.

Case 11: Buffalo

It’s already going to be sad enough watching T.O. tear poor Trent Edwards apart. How sadistic would the bills have to be to throw a rookie in that lion cage?

Case 12: Denver

If Cutler stays in Denver, then there’s reason number one. If he is in fact traded, you can’t help but think that they’ll be getting an established QB of some sort in return. Stafford’s not headed to Denver either way.

Case 13: Washington

The ‘Skins like what they’ve got with Jason Campbell, and a playoff-caliber team isn’t going to waste time teaching a new QB the ropes.

Case 14: New Orleans

Yea right. Drew Brees wont be nervous at all on draft day.

Case 15: Houston

Believe it or not, Schaub is very good. Plus, when you consider how they acquired Schaub then it’s obvious that they have no intentions on wasting 1st round picks on QBs.

Case 16: San Diego

Phillip Rivers says no.

Case 17: New York Jets

The Jets are a possible suitor, but I don’t see it happening. Think about the frustration that bad quarterbacks have caused new head coach Rex Ryan during his days in Baltimore. He’s already publicly stated that next year’s starter is already on the team (unless of course they trade for Cutler), so I don’t see him pulling a 180 and snapping up a QB with the 17th pick. The Jets are a playoff caliber team and I think that they’d be better suited picking up an offensive game-changer with this pick to get them over the hump. Besides, as a rookie Stafford wouldn’t be anymore of an upgrade than Kellen Clemens–a guy who already knows the playbook, and spent last season learning from Brett Favre. I say they pass on Stafford as well.

At this point the Bears would be next on the board, and while their need at QB isn’t as pressing with the emergence of Kyle Orton last season, I can’t help but think that they would have to take the best player on the board. Stafford would be a steal at this point and could end up being the franchise QB the bears have been searching for for years.

B.S. Draft Suggestions posted

Posted in Misc. on March 22nd, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – Be the first to comment

I’m not a big fan of the whole mock draft thing. I mean, I like setting myself up for failure and ridicule as much as the next guy, but mock drafts take that to a whole new level. No one will correctly predict the NFL draft. Ever. Plus, mock drafts tend to make people look dumb (i.e. Todd McShay predicting the Texans taking Mark Sanchez). 

So that’s why I didn’t make one. Instead, I compiled a list of draft “suggestions.” It’s a list of who I think each team should take, not who I think they will take. It’s got a page of it’s own, so go check it out at the tab on the top of the page

Fantasy BS:Free Agency Improving QB Draft Stocks

Posted in Fantasy B.S. on March 18th, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – 1 Comment

 

Cassel and the Chiefs offense might be worth noticing in 2009 (Getty Images)

Cassel and the Chiefs offense might be worth noticing in 2009 (Getty Images)

The key to staying on top of fantasy football is to keep track of the players each year. I know this sounds like an obvious statement, but you’d be surprised how many drafts I’ve been a part of where I’ve caught someone staring in confusion at their cheat sheet asking “Since when did he join the (team name)?!”

Keeping tabs on where lineman go in free agency is one of the best early pieces of fantasy advice I can give you. Good offensive lines make good fantasy players, plain and simple.

Example: Twice in the past 3 years I’ve been rewarded for following this plan:  in 2006, when LG Steve Hutchinson went to Minnesota, I made sure to pick up Chester Taylor as a backup. The former backup Raven went on to run for 1,216 yds that season and chalked up 6 TDs. In 2008, when the Jets signed LG Alan Faneca, Thomas Jones shot up my draft board. Jones went from a statline of 1,119 rushing yds and 1 TD, to 1,312 rushing yds and 13 TDS. 

Another more apparent precursor to fantasy stock improvement is to watch where the wide receivers go. A wide receiver’s fantasy value is so dependent on quarterback play that you need to be aware of the quarterback’s skill level before moving someone up on the fantasy draft board. When Randy moss goes to the Raiders, Randy’s stock drops. But when Randy goes to the Patriots, Randy’s stock explodes. The greatest wide reciever in the world will do nothing for you in fantasy if he’s got an Andrew Walter throwing to him.

This year’s free agency has seen some a number of different player’s stock rise dramatically. Today we’ll take a look at the top three quarterbacks whose fantasy value has increased the most so far through free agency.

1. Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel was a great story to watch in 2008. Until last season, Cassel hadn’t lined up in a regular season football game since his senior year in high school. When Tom Brady went down in week one with a season-ending knee injury, Cassel was called upon to fill some of the biggest shoes in the NFL. Over the next 15 games we watched as he went from a nervous, young fill-in at QB to a calmer, more poised signal-caller and a legitimate passing threat. 

Cassel finished the 2008 season with 3,693 passing yards and 21 TDs. That performance ranked him among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks (using ESPN.com’s standard scoring rules) of last year, tied with Donovan McNabb with 235 points. That’s only 20 points less than 2008 NFL MVP Peyton Manning put up. 

Cassel had turned himself into a hot commodity for every team in need of a quarterback, and with weeks of free agency’s commencement, he had himself a fat new contract and a brand new home with the Kansas City Chiefs. This move puts Cassel in place to pick up almost right where he left off last season, as long as the Chiefs can protect him. He’ll have Tony Gonzales and Dwayne Bowe to replace the Randy Moss/ Wes Welker duo, and all offseason to train with them. While I don’t plan on Cassel challenging Brees or Brady for the top fantasy QB spot next season I project Cassel to be a starter-worthy fantasy player. If you prefer to hold off on QBs until the middle rounds of your draft, Cassel should still be there and could end up being a steal.

2. Matt Hasselbeck

Hasselbeck's early birthday present.

Hasselbeck's early birthday present.

 This past season I drafted Hasselbeck in the fifth round, thinking he’d be a serviceable starting quarterback with definite potential to put up some good fantasy numbers. Unfortunately, Hasselbeck was injured early in the season and I never used him. So because last season was basically a wash, I’m going off of his 2007 season–when he passed for 3,966 yards and 28 TDs. That season he was throwing mainly to Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, and Bobby Engram. That’s not a terrible set of wide receivers, but it’s not exactly mind-blowing either.

This past season, however, we saw the emergence of rookie tight end John Carlson, who led the team in recieving yards (627) and receiving TDs (5). Now say we added a full offseason to work on his timing with Hasselbeck. At this point you’re looking at a pretty solid passing game between Branch and Carlson alone. It’s not like you’d need to add another pro-bowl wide receiver to the mix, right?

Enter T.J. Houshmandzadeh, another pro-bowl wide reciever. If you’re seeing what I’m seeing, then Matt Hasselbeck could put up some serious numbers next season if he stays healthy. I would suggest pulling the trigger on this guy way earlier than he’ll be projected. You wont be dissappointed.

3. Trent Edwards

Trent Edwards was an enigma at best last season, since I could never really put my finger on him. He seemed to be a decent start at the beginning of the season, averaging close to 12 fantasy points per game. Then, after his mid-season injury, Edwards’ fantasy production took a drastic turn for the worse. Excluding his one 33 point outburst (which by that point no one in their right mind would have been starting him) in week 12, Edwards’ average dropped from 11.8 to 7 fantasy points per game.

T.O.'s fake smile looks about as excited as Bryant Gumbel sounded on Thursday Night Football.
T.O.’s fake smile looks about as excited as Bryant Gumbel sounded on Thursday Night Football (AP Photo/James P. McCoy).

So what do we take from this? Nothing, I’d say. Young quarterbacks have chaotic seasons sometimes. Cassel had his growing pains, and I think that was Edwards’ main issue this season. You also have to factor in the talent he was throwing to. Aside from Lee Evans, his options weren’t exactly awe-inspiring.

Now a guy like Terrel Owens could be awe-inspiring. A guy like that could make Edwards look a lot better than he did last year. Look at how well McNabb did the first season he had Owens (went from 3,216 passing yds. and 16 TDs, to 3,875 yds and 31 TDs). Look at Romo in Dallas (4,211 passing yds and 36 TDs in his first full season with T.O.). History shows that QB production increases significantly during T.O.’s first season with a team.

Edwards needs to do his best to make sure that the Trent Edwards that averaged 7 points a game doesn’t show up next season. If the Trent Edwards that averaged 11.8 points a game returns for a full 2009 season, the Bills could have themselves an extremely potent offense capable of challenging a re-vamped AFC East division. If he can keep his mouth shut (which he has done historically in his first season with teams) it will help Edwards’ production even more.

On draft day, he’ll be just a bit lower than Matt Cassel on my board. I’d snag him as a backup with loads of potential, especially if your starting QB has an early season bye-week. With all of the pedestrian-bumping, gun-toting shenanigans running back Marshawn Lynch has been getting himself into, he’s bound to face a suspension of sorts in the beginning of the season. With Lynch out and nary an equitable back-up, Edwards will be thowing…alot.

Weekend Recap: Peterson to Lions…and not much else

Posted in News, weekend recap on March 16th, 2009 by abumnamedpaul – 1 Comment

Someone should've taken the pay cut. (Photo by Dan Delong/P-I)

Someone should've taken the pay cut. (Photo by Dan Delong/P-I)

After failing to persuade linebacker Julian Peterson to take a pay cut this offseason, the Seahawks traded the speedy pass rusher to the Lions for defensive tackle Cory Redding.

The move has subsequently demolished mock drafts around the country, as the Seahawks were initially predicted to take defensive tackle B.J. Raji with the fourth pick in this year’s draft. With the acquisition 27 year-old Redding the Seahawks should be crossing off defensive tackle from their offseason shopping list.

The move on the Lions part is a bit unclear to me. Sure, you gain a solid linebacker who’s very effective at applying pressure on the quarterback…but you just lost your best defensive lineman. I’m no football-ologist, but I firmly believe that lineman trump any other position in terms of value. It will be interesting to see what the Lions do to fill that hole.